Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmys Predictions Ahead of Voting

Best Limited Series

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Genius: Picasso (National Geographic)
The Alienist (TNT)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Finn Wittrock (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Leguizamo (Waco)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED NOMINEES

Merritt Wever (Godless)
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Letitia Wright (Black Mirror: Black Museum)
Adina Porter (American Horror Story: Cult)

Best Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — “The Man Who Would Be Vogue” (Ryan Murphy) — podcast
Godless (Scott Frank)
The Looming Tower — “9/11” (Craig Zisk)
Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski)
Twin Peaks (David Lynch)
Paterno (Barry Levinson)
Patrick Melrose (Edward Berger)

Best Writing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Godless (Scott Frank)
Black Mirror: USS Callister (Charlie Brooker and William Bridges)
Twin Peaks (Mark Frost and David Lynch)
Patrick Melrose (David Nicholls)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — “House by the Lake” (Tom Rob Smith)
American Vandal — “Clean Up” (Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus)

https://acsversace-news.tumblr.com/post/176740048459/audio_player_iframe/acsversace-news/tumblr_pd3qscGJEy1wcyxsb?audio_file=https%3A%2F%2Fia601505.us.archive.org%2F20%2Fitems%2F5r67ujsdthr%2F195_ADTV_WCP%25201.mp3

Maniacally Obsessing Over The 2018 Creative Arts Emmy Categories

This week, the Water Cooler gang looks at major races within the 2018 Creative Arts Emmy categories. Plus, is it too early to start talking about the 2019 Limited Series race? (Answer: No)

We’re returning to the 2018 Emmy cycle this week. Two weeks ago, we looked at some of our favorite categories – Main Title Theme and Main Title Design. This week, we look at a host of categories within the below-the-line 2018 Creative Arts Emmy categories. We predict Variety Special (Live), Drama, Comedy, and Limited Series Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Reality Show Hosting, and Production Design. Looking at these categories sometimes gives Emmy watchers a hint at what could dominate in the main categories. Plus, we take a quick look at this weekend’s TCA award winners. | 6 August 2018

blaindersonkummel:

Watch Gold Derby Editors Tom O’Neil & Joyce Eng clash over their Emmy predictions for the drama & TV movie/mini races

Will “Handmaid’s Tale” win Best Drama Series again? Or can “Game of Thrones or even “The Americans” take it down? Watch Gold Derby editors Joyce and Tom dish the strong chance that “Americans” star Matthew Rhys has to pull off an upset over incumbent champ Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”) for Best Drama Actor. They also handicap the races for Best TV Movie and Limited Series. | 1 August 2018

(*ACS: Versace / Limited Series talk begins at 18:00)

(Source: https://www.youtube.com/)

Betting on the 2018 Emmy Awards – Latest Odds and My Top Picks

Best Actor – Limited Series/Movie

There were some pretty powerful limited series and movies released over the past year, and Darren Criss leads the way for best actor for his gripping performance in The Assassination of Gianni Versace.

Darren Criss -200
Benedict Cumberbatch +180
Antonio Banderas +1200
John Legend +1200
Jesse Plemons +3500
Jeff Daniels +4000

I’m not sure if Criss is the favorite because of how well he acted or just how intense his series was. Either way, it does feel like some pretty iconic stars are being overlooked here.

Jeff Daniels comes in with the worst odds despite crushing it in The Looming Tower, while Antonio Banderas was surprisingly fantastic (I always felt he was loudly overrated) in Genius.

If anyone is stopping Criss, though, it has to be Benedict Cumberbatch for his work in Patrick Melrose.

I think you can consider other options here, but Riz Ahmed was an explosive newcomer last year in The Night Of, and I think Criss looks like a lock to follow a similar path.

PICK Darren Criss -200

Best Limited Series

This category enters with a landslide favorite, as The Assassination of Gianni Versace was extremely well done from top to bottom and figures to be this year’s The Night Of.

The Assassination of Gianni Versace -1500
Godless +1000
Patrick Melrose +1200
Genius: Picasso +1800
The Alienist +2000

Godless has the next best shot here, but this is hands-down The Assassination of Gianni Versace’s Emmy to lose.

PICK The Assassination of Gianni Versace -1500

Best Supporting Actor – Limited Series/Movie

Jeff Daniels has developed into such a great actor that his footprint is felt all over the 2018 Emmy Awards.

He’s nominated for his part in The Looming Tower, but he enters this category as the clear favorite.

Jeff Daniels -650
Edgar Ramirez +400
Brandon Victor Dixon +2000
Finn Wittrock +3300
Michael Stuhlbarg +3300
Ricky Martin +3300
John Leguizamo +4000

I don’t think anyone here really has a case to unseat Daniels from the top spot. Ramirez has the next best odds, but the argument for these other candidates comes up pretty frail.

If anything, I’d swing for the fences and roll the dice on John Leguizamo at +4000. He was never properly honored for his impressive work on Bloodline, while he was fantastic in Waco.

A longshot flier bet isn’t a terrible try here, but Daniels looks like a lock.

PICK Jeff Daniels -650

Best Supporting Actress – Limited Series/Movie

If you thought we were done with The Assassination of Gianni Versace, think again.

Obviously, the critics loved this limited series, and it had as much to do with the tense acting as it did with the real harrowing story.

Penelope Cruz hands in yet another strong performance from this limited series, and she’s favored to take home the award for best supporting actress.

Penelope Cruz -150
Judith Light +250
Merritt Wever +350
Sara Bareilles +1200
Letitia Wright +3300
Adina Porter +5000

I probably wouldn’t go against Cruz here, especially since -150 is a nice price for a sizable favorite.

That being said, Judith Light was also great in The Assassination of Gianni Versace, and Letitia Wright (+3300) is worth a flier for her role in a Black Mirror episode.

I still think this is Cruz’s award to lose, and the value is nice.

PICK Penelope Cruz -150

Betting on the 2018 Emmy Awards – Latest Odds and My Top Picks

Emmys: 8 Onscreen Couples Looking to Collect Wins

Ricky Martin and Edgar Ramirez

‘The Assassination of Gianni Versace’

Playing Gianni Versace (Ramirez) and his longtime lover Antonio D’Amico (Martin) on FX’s limited series earned Martin his first Emmy nom and Ramirez his second. But the pair will now face off against each other and fellow co-star Finn Wittrock in the supporting actor category. While Ramirez has the best shot for his transformative work as the titular character, the Versace gang could lose out to Godless’ Jeff Daniels.

Emmys: 8 Onscreen Couples Looking to Collect Wins

Emmy Episode Analysis: Who Will Direct an Emmy-Winning Episode? • AwardsCircuit – By Clayton Davis – Celebrating 10 Years

Best Directing in a Limited Series or Made for TV Movie

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” – “The Man Who Would Be Vogue” – Directed by Ryan Murphy

Plot: The murder of Gianni Versace turns the eyes of the world onto Miami Beach.

Ryan Murphy certainly accentuates the lush locale and circumstances of the titular murder. The inaugural episode of the miniseries launches with grand, salacious detail as a horrifying crime happens before us. Murphy knows how to draw us in using bright, poppy visual imagery that has their own energy. The acclaimed series enters as the frontrunner, and this category tends to go to the frontrunner. However, surprises usually happen when Ryan Murphy is involved. In fact, his shows have never won a directing category in the Miniseries or TV movie vertical. Even “The People vs. O.J. Simpson” had all three of its submissions lose out to “The Night Manager.” If voters are once again looking for a Ryan Murphy alternative, what other option might they go for?

Predicted Ranking

“Godless”

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” – “The Man Who Would Be Vogue”

“Patrick Melrose”

“Paterno”

“Twin Peaks”

“Jesus Christ Superstar”

“The Looming Tower” – “9/11”

Emmy Episode Analysis: Who Will Direct an Emmy-Winning Episode? • AwardsCircuit – By Clayton Davis – Celebrating 10 Years

Benedict Cumberbatch (‘Patrick Melrose’) could pull off another Emmy upset against a Ryan Murphy star

It’s dangerous to underestimate Benedict Cumberbatch at the Emmys. Most pundits weren’t predicting that he’d win Best Movie/Mini Actor for “Sherlock: His Last Vow” in 2014. In fact, he ranked fourth with 50/1 odds. Now he’s nominated in that category for the sixth time in seven years, this time for “Patrick Melrose.” And again he’s not the front-runner to win. But our Emmy Experts warn us not to foolishly discount him again in what could be his second time upsetting a Ryan Murphy favorite.

The 2014 race was up in the air. Mark Ruffalo had the narrow lead in our predictions for his role in Murphy’s HBO adaptation of “The Normal Heart,” and even in hindsight that seemed like a smart bet. It was a showy performance full of righteous speeches adapted from a Tony winning play about the early days of the AIDS crisis.

Then there were Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman, both nominated for “Fargo.” It was the front-runner for Best Miniseries, which it ultimately won, and Thornton especially seemed like a formidable opponent since he was an Oscar winning movie star playing a mustache-twirling villain. Most of our Experts and Top Users that year thought Thornton would take it.

But instead, Cumberbatch won in a huge upset. Not only that, “His Last Vow” ended up with seven total Emmys that year including Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor, where Freeman upset another “Normal Heart” actor, Matt Bomer. It was the most awarded program of the year in any genre. We didn’t see that coming.

Now the ‘Batch is back, and so is Ryan Murphy — no surprise there since both have been regular fixtures at the Emmys in recent years. Cumberbatch earned his sixth bid for playing the tortured title character in “Patrick Melrose,” and his bid tied him with Laurence Olivier for the second most nominations in the category (both are one bid behind Hal Holbrook). And Murphy could be poised to sweep the longform categories with his true-crime limited series “The Assassination of Gianni Versace.”

Among the wins we’re predicting for “Versace” is Best Movie/Mini Actor for Darren Criss, who plays spree killer Andrew Cunanan. But it’s not an open-and-shut case. Criss gets leading odds of 2/3, but Cumberbatch is right on his heels with odds of 7/2. And he’s backed by five of the Expert journalists we’ve polled for their Emmy picks so far: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire) and Ben Travers(IndieWire). That’s only two fewer Experts than are predicting Criss.

“Patrick Melrose” did well overall at the Emmys, also earning bids for Best Limited Series, Best Movie/Mini Writing, Best Movie/Mini Directing and Best Movie/Mini Casting. That shows significant support from the TV academy, though it’s the acting branch that matters for Cumberbatch and unfortunately he’s the only actor from the program to earn a nom. Compare that to “Versace,” which earned six nominations for acting, so it appears to me much more beloved by the peer group voters who will be deciding Cumberbatch’s fate.

Then again, “The Normal Heart” had five acting nominations and “Fargo” had four in 2014. “Sherlock” only had two that year, but it still managed to win them both. Sometimes it’s not a matter of how many actors the voters love but how much they love them. And judging from recent history, they love Cumberbatch. A lot.

Benedict Cumberbatch (‘Patrick Melrose’) could pull off another Emmy upset against a Ryan Murphy star

Emmys Finally See a Repeat Reset With Leading Men Nominees (Column)

What may be most interesting, though, is the limited series/movie actor race. The lone vet is “Genius: Picasso’s” Antonio Banderas, with one prior nom. The category not only boasts some first-time nominees in the category — hi, Darren Criss, Jeff Daniels and Jesse Plemons! — but also an overall rookie acting nominee in John Legend (“Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert”). What a story it would make if a truly brand-new actor broke through. Nothing else would put performers on notice that they can’t get too comfortable.

Strides have clearly been taken to ensure the Emmys stay relevant and topical, but the real test will come in September, when we will see who takes home the trophies. For the past three years, the limited series/movie actor winner was a first-time nominee (Richard Jenkins in 2015, Courtney B. Vance in 2016 and Riz Ahmed in 2017), while the same was true in drama actor for the past two years (Rami Malek in 2016 and Brown reigning last year), and in comedy in 2017 newcomer Glover dethroned two-time champ Tambor.

Here’s hoping that continues, to become an official streak, and so no one, even those performers churning out consistent performances year over year, rest on their laurels. Because in the end, everyone wins when TV and its talent are at the top of their game.

Emmys Finally See a Repeat Reset With Leading Men Nominees (Column)

Emmy Awards: Why Rules Were Made to Be Broken (Column)

Ensembles matter — until they don’t.

Voters went deep on shows they loved — showering series like “The Handmaid’s Tale” with 20 noms overall and eight for its actors, including the surprise recognition of Kelly Jenrette, who played Luke’s ex-wife. Ditto “Westworld,” whose 21 nominations folded in 5 acting nods and “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” which scored 18 overall and 6 for its cast. Those casting sweeps mean that co-stars will be vying against each other in many of those races.

Yet inexplicably that love didn’t extend as deeply to the other series that Emmy fawned over: Somehow among “Game of Thrones” 22 nominations only three actors made the cut — snubbing series leads (and audience favorites) Emilia Clarke and Kit Harington (perhaps it was their jump from supporting to lead?). And while four of “This Is Us’” nods came from the acting categories, somehow the women of the cast escaped the notice of voters — notably Mandy Moore and Chrissy Metz, key members of the show’s ensemble. “GLOW” is competing for best comedy series without its lead actress in contention (Alison Brie), as is “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Ellie Kemper).

Emmy Awards: Why Rules Were Made to Be Broken (Column)

Emmy Predictions 2018: Outstanding Limited Series

Last Year’s Winner: “Big Little Lies”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Over the past five years, HBO and FX have alternated wins in this category. Since HBO’s “Big Little Lies” won in 2017, it’s FX’s “turn” in 2018.
Fun Fact: The “American Horror Story” franchise has been nominated five times in this category, one short of the record held by “Prime Suspect” — except the PBS series had won three times by this point, and “American Horror Story” has never won.

“Twin Peaks” and “The Looming Tower” are out, “The Alienist” and “Genius: Picasso” are in; that was the surprising revelation on Emmy nominations’ morning, as two of the presumed limited series frontrunners couldn’t even make the initial cut. How does that change the race to the finish line? Quite a bit.

Two series in particular should be breathing a bit more easily right now. “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” has the “American Crime Story” brand backing it, not to mention the full power of Ryan Murphy, so FX must be liking its chances now that the critics’ darling and historical Hulu threat are out of the running. Netflix, though, is likely itching even more for its first win in the category, and “Godless” could get them there. Jeff Daniels and Michelle Dockery’s western sports a cast of TV Academy favorites, earned solid reviews, and appears to be widely seen.

Then there’s the dark horse: While Showtime thought it had a good shot at two slots here, “Patrick Melrose” is now a sneaky pick to win. Benedict Cumberbatch has never been better, he’s beloved by Emmy voters, and the relatively short limited series (five episodes) should be an easy binge for anyone who hasn’t caught up yet. Moreover, it’s got weighty subject matter, confidant style, and is less divisive than the hit-or-miss “Versace” and “Godless.” (“Versace” earned less raves than its “ACS” predecessor, while westerns in general can be a turn-off to some viewers.)

So what about those surprise nominees? “The Alienist” scored six nominations overall, but none in the acting categories; it looks like it’ll need another shocking turn of events to walk away with the gold. As for “Genius: Picasso,” it nabbed a critical nod for Antonio Banderas, but has less total nominations than the “Einstein” edition, which won zero in 2017. It, too, looks like a longshot.

Below are IndieWire TV Critic Ben Travers’ predictions for Outstanding Limited Series (listed in alphabetical order), which will be updated throughout the season. Make sure to keep checking IndieWire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2018 race, and read predictions for the rest of the categories, as well.

The Nominees:

“The Alienist”

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”

“Genius: Picasso”

“Godless”

“Patrick Melrose”

Will Win: “Godless”
Could Win: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”
Should Win: “Twin Peaks” (How was this left out?)

Emmy Predictions 2018: Outstanding Limited Series