[…] In many ways though some of the juice of that “Big Little Lies” vs. “Feud” showdown in the Limited Series categories last year, a battle the HBO entry eventually dominated, is missing. “Twin Peaks” vs. “The Looming Tower” vs. “The Assassination of Gianni Versace”doesn’t have quite the same pull and probably because the celebrated David Lynch series of the three aired so long ago.
Emmy Voting Begins But Will Anyone Be Surprised By The Outcome?
If We Had An Emmy Ballot: 2018 Edition
The Cooler Gang returns to a favorite topic: our annual If We Had an Emmy Ballot podcast. Megan, Joey, and Clarence each list their votes in major categories if they were voting members of the Television Academy. | 11 June 2018
Outstanding Limited Series
FX’s “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” and Showtime’s “Patrick Melrose” will undoubtedly lead this category in this year’s limited series nominations. They will most likely stand next to Netflix’s “Godless” and Hulu’s “The Looming Tower.”
Chances are, “Twin Peaks” will not be nominated. Though the haunting revival received grand praise, David Lynch’s awe-inspiring surrealist directing seeping through every scene, the show is not commercial enough to earn a nomination — a disappointing truth when one considers how the series withstood the test of time, capitalizing beautifully on its cult status with a cast of seasoned actors, shocking musical appearances and a series of unimaginable stories.
Steven Soderbergh-directed “Mosaic” will also miss out on a nomination for limited series. The murder mystery is made better by Soderbergh’s signature directing, simmering with suspense. While the show is not Soderbergh’s best work, it has plenty of features to still be considered a contender. Therefore, whether or not its omission from the nominations list is a snub is up to you.
2018 Emmy Awards: Which shows are bound to slip through the cracks?
Cody Fern, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” — Darren Criss deserves a nomination for his surprisingly nuanced turn as spree killer Andrew Cunanan in the second “ACS” installment. But Fern, as David, the object of Andrew’s twisted affection, was the kind of quiet revelation that slaps you across the face and you ask for more. Even though we know David’s fate at the hands of Andrew, Fern draws a heartache from his real-life counterpart in a truly moving manner. For the acting novice, it’s a breakout performance.
Screen Talk Emmy Edition 2018: A Lackluster Longform Race (Episode 2)
IndieWire’s Screen Talk podcast brings back its bonus Emmy edition as this year’s race heats up. This week, IndieWire editor-at-large Anne Thompson and executive editor Michael Schneider banter about the limited series and TV movie categories. | 6 June 2018
“Big Little Lies” ran away with Best Limited Series and any other Emmys that weren’t nailed down in 2017. But there doesn’t seem to be as decisive a favorite in the 2018 race — at least, not according to our Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby. There are only three programs they all agree will be nominated: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” “Godless” and “The Looming Tower.” But they don’t agree on which will win.
As of this writing “Versace” is the front-runner to win with 9/5 odds based on the combined predictions of more than 2,000 Gold Derby users. That includes support from four out of eight Editors: Joyce Eng, Marcus James Dixon, Tom O’Neil and myself. “Versace” is the second season in FX’s true-crime anthology series “American Crime Story” that began in 2016 with “The People v. O.J. Simpson,” which swept the Emmys that year, including Best Limited Series. So the academy has already shown their fondness for the show. It stands to reason voters would rally around producer Ryan Murphy again, right?
Not if up-and-coming streaming services get their way. Netflix’s western “Godless” ranks fourth in our overall predictions with 13/2 odds, but our Editors actually rank it second, with Rob Licuria and Paul Sheehan both predicting that it will upset. Netflix has never received an Emmy nom for Best Limited Series, but there’s a first time for everything, and Netflix has spent years racking up firsts: it was the first streaming service to break through with nominations for Best Drama Series (“House of Cards,” 2013) and Best Comedy Series (“Orange is the New Black,” 2014), and it had the first streaming winner for Best TV
But Hulu stole some of Netflix’s thunder in 2017 when its breakthrough series “The Handmaid’s Tale” became the first streaming show to win Best Drama Series. Now they’re hoping to make similar history with their limited series “The Looming Tower,” which ranks third in our overall predictions with 11/2 odds and ranks third with our Editors as well with Chris Beachum and Matt Nobleforecasting its victory. “Looming Tower” is based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning nonfiction book about the investigations and miscommunications between the CIA and FBI in the years leading to 9/11.
“Looming Tower” boasts a prestigious cast including Emmy winners Jeff Daniels and Alec Baldwin, Emmy nominee Bill Camp and Golden Globe nominees Peter Sarsgaard and Michael Stuhlbarg. And true stories are often popular with Emmy voters, as evidenced in the last 10 years by “John Adams” (2008), “The Pacific” (2010), “Game Change” (2002), “Behind the Candelabra” (2013) and the aforementioned “People v. O.J.” That could help “Versace” too, of course. So do you agree with our Editors that this is a three-way race?
The charts below reflect how THR’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018 is eligible.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).
Best Limited Series
FRONTRUNNERS
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Genius (National Geographic)Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
FRONTRUNNERS
Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Al Pacino (Paterno)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
FRONTRUNNERS
Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)MAJOR THREATS
Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sam Waterston (Godless)
Scoot McNairy (Godless)
Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)POSSIBILITIES
Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Dylan Baker (Little Women)
Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
Jason Ritter (The Tale)Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie
FRONTRUNNERS
Merritt Wever (Godless)
Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)
Best Variety Talk Series – Feinberg Forecast: T-Minus One Week Until Nomination Voting
Memo To The Television Academy: 2018 Emmy Long Shots | 4 June 2018
Jon Jon Briones and Cody Fern mentioned as Emmy longshots
Last Year’s Winner: Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: FX and HBO have both earned nominations in this category since 2012 (and HBO’s streak dates back to 2003).
Fun Fact: For the first time since “Downton Abbey” made the jump from limited series to drama series in 2013, not a single anthology series (or other franchise) that was nominated the year prior is in contention this year.It’s the movie stars vs. the TV favorites in a surprisingly competitive Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie race. Penelope Cruz (“American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”) and Nicole Kidman (“Top of the Lake: China Girl”) are looking to crack in for respected turns in prestige projects; Cruz as the sister of a fashion icon who became a star, Donatella Versace, and Kidman as an Australian mother, Julia, whose story dovetails with Elisabeth Moss’ detective.
Meanwhile, Angela Lansbury — a three-time Oscar nominee and 18-time Emmy nominee — aims for her first statue from the TV Academy for her role in “Little Women.” (No, Jessica Fletcher was never rewarded for “Murder She Wrote.”) Last year’s winner Laura Dern — who has a pair of Oscar nominations herself — is back in the race for “Twin Peaks: The Return.” She’ll be competing against another former Emmy winner Merritt Wever, who took home the trophy in 2013 for “Nurse Jackie” (and hasn’t been back in the race since).
But even with these big names in play, there are plenty more heavyweights vying for slots. Ellen Burstyn hit all the right notes in a tricky performance for “The Tale” (as did Elizabeth Debicki, whose haunting turn leaves a lasting mark) and Jennifer Jason Leigh played a complicated victim over decades of narrative in the Showtime drama, “Patrick Melrose.” Naomi Watts is hoping voters look fondly on David Lynch’s Dougie storyline, and Judith Light hopes members are taken with “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” enough to nominate her and Cruz.
Throw in Julia Ormond (“Howards End”), Anna Paquin (“Alias Grace”), and Sharon Stone (“Mosaic”) — who would be locks in other years — and this competition is looking mighty fierce. Much like the rest of the Emmys, the final tally could come down to which shows are seen, remembered, and beloved; two (or more) nominees from one show aren’t out of the realm of possibility.
Below are IndieWire TV Critic Ben Travers’ predictions for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie (listed in alphabetical order), which will be updated throughout the season. Make sure to keep checking IndieWire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2018 race, and read predictions for the rest of the categories, as well.
Predicted Nominees:
- Ellen Burstyn, “The Tale”
- Penelope Cruz, “American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”
- Laura Dern, “Twin Peaks: The Return”
- Nicole Kidman, “Top of the Lake: China Girl”
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, “Patrick Melrose”
- Merritt Wever, “Godless”
Spoilers: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Tale”; Angela Lansbury, “Little Women”; Judith Light, “American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”; Anna Paquin, “Alias Grace”; Naomi Watts, “Twin Peaks: The Return”
In a Perfect World: Julia Ormond, “Howards End”; Julia Garner, “Waco”
Emmy Predictions 2018: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Last Year’s Winner: Alexander Skarsgård, “Big Little Lies”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: HBO won this category eight out of nine years between 2003 and 2011. Since then, as the race has gotten more and more competitive, the premium cable network has only won twice in the last six years.
Fun Fact: Only one actor has won multiple times in this category: Beau Bridges, for “The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom” (in 1993) and “The Second Civil War” (in 1997).Jeff Daniels is aiming to be a double nominee in 2018, as a lead actor in “The Looming Tower” and also in the supporting category for “Godless.” But in which category does the former winner have his best shot? On the one hand, “The Looming Tower” is getting quite the prestige push from Hulu, but “Godless” has proven to be popular and long-lasting. Fans are still buzzing over his one-armed turn as the villainous outlaw Frank Griffin.
There’s still a lot of competition in the best supporting actor race via the limited series and TV movies in competition. Daniels has a few of his peers from “The Looming Tower” coming at him, from Michael Stuhlbarg to Bill Camp (who was nominated in 2017) to Peter Sarsgaard. Stuhlbarg has an early edge — hopefully to make up for his “Fargo” turn being snubbed in 2017 — but two Hulu favorites could end up making the cut. That, or Daniels’ “Godless” co-star Scoot McNairy could snag a nomination, too.
If they don’t bump Daniels, there are plenty of contenders disconnected from the “Newsroom” star, too. Brandon Victor Dixon made quite a mark on audiences in “Jesus Christ Superstar,” as did Bill Pullman in the USA Network thriller “The Sinner.” Edgar Ramirez and Ricky Martin played a couple onscreen in “American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”; could they score joint nominations to match?
They may have to fight off two impressive performances from a couple of HBO films. Jason Ritter may be playing a monster in “The Tale,” but the well-liked actor took a big risk and made the most of it. (Similarly, Hugo Weaving plays a very bad man in “Patrick Melrose,” but will voters look past the character and see the work done to bring his evil to life?) He’s more than deserving, as is Michael Shannon for “Fahrenheit 451.” The Chicago theatre veteran and Oscar-nominated big screen star created a nuanced new take on Captain Beatty.
Below are IndieWire TV Critic Ben Travers’ predictions for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie (listed in alphabetical order), which will be updated throughout the season. Make sure to keep checking IndieWire for all the latest buzz and highlights from the 2018 race, and read predictions for the rest of the categories, as well.
Predicted Nominees:
- Jeff Daniels, “Godless”
- Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar”
- Edgar Ramirez, “American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”
- Jason Ritter, “The Tale”
- Michael Shannon, “Fahrenheit 451”
- Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Looming Tower”
Spoilers: Bill Camp, “The Looming Tower”; John Leguizamo, “Waco”; Ricky Martin, “American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace”; Bill Pullman, “The Singger”; Peter Sarsgaard, “The Looming Tower”; Hugo Weaving, “Patrick Melrose”
In a Perfect World: Miguel Ferrer, “Twin Peaks: The Return”; Robert Forster, “Twin Peaks: The Return”; Scoot McNairy, “Godless”; Tobias Menzies, “The Terror”; Tahar Rahim, “The Looming Tower”
Emmy Predictions 2018: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
ACS news 