Feinberg Forecast: Emmy Standings in the Run-Up to Nominations Voting

The charts below reflect how THR’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018 is eligible.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

Best Limited Series

FRONTRUNNERS

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Genius (National Geographic)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Al Pacino (Paterno)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)

MAJOR THREATS

Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sam Waterston (Godless)
Scoot McNairy (Godless)
Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
Bill Pullman (The Sinner)
Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)

POSSIBILITIES

Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Dylan Baker (Little Women)
Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
Luke Evans (The Alienist)
Jason Ritter (The Tale)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Merritt Wever (Godless)
Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)

Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
Ellen Burstyn (The Tale)

Feinberg Forecast: Emmy Standings in the Run-Up to Nominations Voting


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TV Cancellations, Tonys and Touring the Emmy Tracker – Awards Daily TV’s Water Cooler Podcast

It’s just another Megan-less Monday at the Water Cooler Podcast where Joey and Clarence talk ‘Patrick Melrose,’ Emmys, TV cancellations, and Tony nominations. | 14 May 2018

Will ‘The Assassination of Gianni Versace’ be the latest Ryan Murphy production to dominate Best Supporting Actor at the Emmys?

The television academy’s acting branch has a love affair with Ryan Murphy productions, which earn multiple Emmy nominations for their performances year after year. “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” the second installment of Murphy’s “American Crime Story” anthology series, now enters the Emmy race and could dominate the Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor category just like “The Normal Heart” and “The People v. O.J. Simpson” did.

Having multiple nominees from the same series or movie can yield mixed results. Before Murphy began his anthology empire Mike Nichols‘s “Angels In America” scored four out of the five available slots for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor in 2004: Justin Kirk, Ben Shenkman, Patrick Wilson and Jeffrey Wright were joined by William H. Macy (“Stealing Sinatra”). Macy was unable to stop the “Angels In America” juggernaut, so Wright took home the Emmy for playing Belize and Mr. Lies, the same role that won him a Tony Award in 1994 for the original Broadway production of “Angels.”

But Murphy’s productions have been hit-and-miss when they have dominated the category. His passion project “The Normal Heart” earned four of the six available nominations in the category in 2014: Matt Bomer, Joe Mantello, Alfred Molina and Jim Parsons. Bomer was the presumed favorite for playing dying reporter Felix Turner, but Martin Freeman pulled off a shocking upset for “Sherlock: His Last Vow.” Freeman probably benefited from Colin Hanks rounding out the six nominees for his role in “Fargo.” Freeman also co-starred in “Fargo,” which allowed voters to see him in two drastically different roles.

Two years later “The People v. O.J. Simpson” scored three out of the six nominations for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor: Sterling K. Brown, David Schwimmer and John Travolta. Even though Schwimmer and Travolta were better known at the time, Brown’s breakthrough performance as prosecutor Christopher Darden brought him the Emmy.

Will “Versace” do just as well in the nominations? And if so, will one of its supporting actors win? Let’s take a look at the top five actors from the limited series trying to make the Emmy lineup and their current odds according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users.

Edgar Ramirez: 1st place with odds of 7/2

Ramirez is a past Emmy nominee for “Carlos” (Best Movie/Mini Actor, 2011). Despite playing the titular character in “Versace,” he’s not the central focus of the series, but he does have an Emmy I.O.U. to cash in after his surprise loss to Barry Pepper (“The Kennedys”) seven years ago.

Ricky Martin: 7th place with odds of 25/1

Martin plays Antonio D’Amico, Versace’s long-time partner. He’s right on the bubble to score his first Emmy nomination, though like Ramirez his character does not have a singular showcase episode. But if the Grammy winning musician does take home the Emmy it will put him at the halfway point to a career EGOT.

Jon Jon Briones: 15th place with odds of 100/1

Briones appears as the controlling and manipulative Modesto Cunanan, the father of spree killer Andrew Cunanan (Darren Criss). Briones is best known for his work on stage as The Engineer in the musical “Miss Saigon.” The Philippines native has a stellar acting showcase in the episode “Creator/Destroyer,” where he abuses his wife and son and commits financial fraud. Criss only appears towards the end of the episode, so it rests almost solely on Briones shoulders, giving him the opportunity to truly carry a storyline.

Cody Fern: 19th place with odds of 100/1

Fern plays Cunanan’s second victim and one-time friend David Madson. The Australian actor only had seven credits to his name before giving his breakthrough performance in the fourth episode of “Versace,” “House by the Lake,” in which his character is taken hostage and forced to go on the road with Cunanan. While Fern doesn’t have the name-recognition of his rivals, that didn’t stop Sterling K. Brown two years ago.

Finn Wittrock: 20th place with odds of 100/1

Wittrock is a previous Emmy nominee for his breakthrough performance in another Murphy production, “American Horror Story: Freak Show” (2015), in which he played serial killer Dandy Mott. This time he plays a murder victim: Jeffrey Trail, the first man killed by Cunanan. Like Fern and Briones he’s given an episode in which his character is the predominant focus: “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” in which Trail deals with the pain and shame of hiding his sexuality to keep his career in the Navy. Trail befriends Cunanan and eventually confronts him about his lies and manipulation before Cunanan fatally turns on Trail. Should Wittrock score another Emmy nomination, will he win on his second try?

Will ‘The Assassination of Gianni Versace’ be the latest Ryan Murphy production to dominate Best Supporting Actor at the Emmys?

Best Variety Talk Series – Feinberg Forecast: T-Minus 3 Weeks Until Emmy Nomination Voting

Best Limited Series

FRONTRUNNERS

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Twin Peaks (Showtime)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Al Pacino (Paterno)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

MAJOR THREATS

Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sam Waterston (Godless)
Scoot McNairy (Godless)
Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)

POSSIBILITIES

Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Dylan Baker (Little Women)
Luke Evans (The Alienist)
John Leguizamo (Waco)
Jason Ritter (The Tale)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Merritt Wever (Godless)
Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)

Angela Lansbury (Little Women)

Best Variety Talk Series – Feinberg Forecast: T-Minus 3 Weeks Until Emmy Nomination Voting

Emmy Predictions 2018: Forecasting Nominations for Limited Series, Reality & Variety Categories | Film Trophies

OUTSTANDING LIMITED SERIES
American Vandal
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Godless
Howards End
Twin Peaks

It’s a tough year to call for limited series, since nothing really took the nation by storm like Big Little Lies or The People v. O.J. Simpson in years past. Even if initial critics were divided on Gianni Versace I think the final product was immensely powerful and will probably be the frontrunner as such. I also expect something as high profile as Twin Peaks to be nominated despite its divisiveness. From there it’s anyone’s guess, so I’m betting on two Netflix series that have earned acclaim, American Vandal and Godless, since they have both done fairly well in precursor awards. I’m guessing Howards End will round out the five, as the TV Academy loves prestigious British dramas, especially those written by legendary writers like Kenneth Lonergan.

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Darren Criss – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
Michael B. Jordan – Fahrenheit 451
Kyle MacLachlan – Twin Peaks
Al Pacino – Paterno
Evan Peters – American Horror Story: Cult

Darren Criss should be the runaway frontrunner for his stellar performance as Andrew Cunanan in Gianni Versace, but Kyle MacLachlan will ideally be hot on his trail for playing three different characters in the Twin Peaks revival. Al Pacino will likely get in for yet another HBO TV movie where he plays a controversial public figure, while Benedict Cumberbatch gets in every year for whatever he does, so why not Patrick Melrose, too? After the great year Michael B. Jordan is having I’m guessing he can sneak into this category, even if Fahrenheit 451 doesn’t have the best reviews. For the last slot I’m going with a passion pick, but Evan Peters gave his best performance on American Horror Story yet this past season and I’m going out on a limb and saying the remaining AHS fans in the Academy will push him through.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Jeff Daniels – Godless
Brandon Victor Dixon – Jesus Christ Superstar
Edgar Ramirez – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Jason Ritter – The Tale
Michael Shannon – Fahrenheit 451
Sam Waterston – Godless

No idea. Seriously, this category is an absolute mess this year and the winner could be anyone. For now I’m going with people associated with what I expect to be the limited series and movies Emmy voters will watch, so Jeff Daniels, Edgar Ramirez, Michael Shannon, and Sam Waterston it is. Tentatively adding in Jason Ritter as well. Then there’s Brandon Victor Dixon, who had extremely strong reviews for Jesus Christ Superstar and could angle himself into becoming the first actor from one of these recent live musicals to get an acting nomination.

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Ellen Burstyn – The Tale
Penélope Cruz – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Laura Dern – Twin Peaks
Nicole Kidman – Top of the Lake: China Girl
Angela Lansbury – Little Women
Judith Light – The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Hooray double nomination for Laura Dern! Like with Supporting Actor it’s hard to say exactly who will get in here, so it’s best to go with the seen contenders, like Ellen Burstyn in The Tale, Penélope Cruz and Judith Light in Gianni Versace, and probably Nicole Kidman for Top of the Lake. Then I expect there to be a big narrative for 18x Emmy loser Angela Lansbury to get a nomination that could even propel her to a win.

Emmy Predictions 2018: Forecasting Nominations for Limited Series, Reality & Variety Categories | Film Trophies

‘Game of Thrones,’ ‘Handmaid’s Tale’ and ‘black-ish’ lead our 2018 Emmys buzzmeter

It’s the year(s) of Peak TV when there’s so much quality programming on the air that it seems there’s just never enough time to watch everything. All of which makes the Emmys a confusing time for many. How can you know what series might rise above the others come awards time if you haven’t seen them all? That’s exactly why we have a panel of professionals to guide you through it. Here, our Buzzmeter experts tell us what they think will stand out in 14 key Emmy categories come nomination day July 12. Have other suggestions? Let us know in the comments.

Our panelists:

Lorraine Ali/Los Angeles Times; Tom O’Neil/Gold Derby; Matt Roush/TV Guide; Glenn Whipp/The Envelope

Their picks in the key categories:

Limited series frontrunners: ‘The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story’ | ‘Looming Tower’ | ‘Godless’

“Ryan Murphy’s adventurous study of a gay psychopath, told in reverse chronology, was unexpectedly fascinating and unsettling. But in terms of pure entertainment, how I loved the female-driven Western shenanigans of ‘Godless.’” –Matt Roush

Critics’ Picks

“The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

“Twin Peaks: The Return”: Glenn, Matt, Tom

“Looming Tower”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

“Howards End”: Glenn, Matt, Tom

“Godless”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

“Genius: Picasso”: Lorraine

”Alias Grace”: Lorraine

”The Terror”: Lorraine

Limited series actor frontrunners: Kyle MacLachlan, ‘Twin Peaks’ | Darren Criss, ‘Versace’ | Al Pacino, ‘Paterno’ | Michael B. Jordan, ‘Fahrenheit 451’

“Traditionally, this category is claimed by big movie stars like Al Pacino, who won twice (2004, 2010), but recent champs have been appealing newcomers like Riz Ahmed and Courtney B. Vance. That’s good news for Darren Criss.” –Tom O’Neill

Critics’ Picks

Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

Darren Criss, “Versace”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

Al Pacino, “Paterno”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

Jeff Daniels, “The Looming Tower”: Glenn, Matt, Tom

Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine

Michael B. Jordan, “Fahrenheit 451”: Glenn, Matt, Lorraine, Tom

Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”: Lorraine, Tom

‘Game of Thrones,’ ‘Handmaid’s Tale’ and ‘black-ish’ lead our 2018 Emmys buzzmeter

Emmys 2018 exclusive: FX categories for ‘Atlanta,’ ‘Versace,’ ‘The Americans’ and more

In a Gold Derby exclusive, we have learned the category placements of the key Emmy Awards contenders for FX. For this season, the cable network has returning Emmy contenders “Atlanta” (Donald Glover), “The Americans” (Keri Russell, Matthew Rhys) and “Baskets” (Zach Galifianakis), newcomer “Trust” (Donald Sutherland) and limited series “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” (Darren Criss) as part of their 2018 campaign.

Below, the list of FX lead, supporting and guest submissions for their comedy, drama and limited series. More names might be added by the network on the final Emmy ballot. Also note that performers not included on this list may well be submitted by their personal reps.

“THE ASSASSINATION OF GIANNI VERSACE”
Limited Series
Movie/Limited Series Actor – Darren Criss
Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actress – Joanna Adler, Penelope Cruz, Judith Light
Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actor – Jon Jon Briones, Cody Fern, Ricky Martin, Edgar Ramirez, Finn Wittrock

Emmys 2018 exclusive: FX categories for ‘Atlanta,’ ‘Versace,’ ‘The Americans’ and more

Best Television Movie – Feinberg Forecast: Emmy Standings As the Race Heads Into May

The charts below reflect how THR’s awards columnist Scott Feinberg believes the Emmy standings would look if voting for the 2018 race ended today. (Eligible for consideration is work released between June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018.) These projections are formulated using a combination of personal impressions (from sampling many programs), historical considerations (how other shows with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some groups have historically correlated with the TV Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including voters, content creators, awards strategists and fellow members of the press).

Best Limited Series

FRONTRUNNERS

The Looming Tower (Hulu)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Twin Peaks (Showtime)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Al Pacino (Paterno)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Michael Shannon (Fahrenheit 451) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower)
Peter Sarsgaard (The Looming Tower)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)
Bill Camp (The Looming Tower)

MAJOR THREATS

Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sam Waterston (Godless)
Robert Forster (Twin Peaks)
Beau Bridges (Mosaic)
Scoot McNairy (Godless)
Alex Rich (Genius: Picasso)

POSSIBILITIES

Hugo Weaving (Patrick Melrose)
Alice Cooper (Jesus Christ Superstar)
Dylan Baker (Little Women)
Luke Evans (The Alienist)
Josh Charles (Law & Order True Crime: The Menendez Murders)
John Leguizamo (Waco)
Cody Fern (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Jason Ritter (The Tale)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

FRONTRUNNERS

Laura Dern (Twin Peaks)
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Nicole Kidman (Top of the Lake: China Girl) — podcast
Angela Lansbury (Little Women)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Merritt Wever (Godless)

Best Television Movie – Feinberg Forecast: Emmy Standings As the Race Heads Into May

2018 Emmy Predictions: Updated and Ranked

Outstanding Limited Series

1. The Looming Tower (Hulu)
2. American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)
3. Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)
4. Godless (Netflix)
5. Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

1. Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)
2. Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
3. Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
4. Al Pacino, Paterno (HBO)
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
6. Evan Peters, American Horror Story: Cult (FX)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie

1. Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
2. Michael Shannon, Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
3. Jeff Daniels, Godless (Netflix)
4. Peter Sarsgaard, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
5. Tahar Rahim, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
6. Bill Camp, The Looming Tower (Hulu)

OTHER CONTENDERS
Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar Live (NBC)
Cody Fern, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Russell Hornsby, Seven Seconds (Netflix)
Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Sam Waterston, Godless (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie

1. Laura Dern, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)
2. Nicole Kidman, Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance)
3. Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
4. Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)

5. Angela Lansbury, Little Women (BBC)
6. Ellen Burstyn, The Tale (HBO)

2018 Emmy Predictions: Updated and Ranked

SNL’s “Weekend Update” Anchors Michael Che and Colin Jost to Host 2018 Emmys

It’s hard to predict this early who and what will receive nominations, but it strikes us as likely The Crown, Westworld, This Is Us and The Handmaid’s Tale will be among that number. Keep an eye out for Laura Dern’s performance in The Tale, in particular, to nab a nomination. In a perfect world, we’d love to see Darren Criss from The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story snag a nomination, as well, but only time will tell.

SNL’s “Weekend Update” Anchors Michael Che and Colin Jost to Host 2018 Emmys