American: Crime Story—The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX) Twin Peaks (Showtime) The Looming Tower (Hulu) Godless (Netflix) Howards End (Starz)
Versace may not have fully coalesced, but it was one of the bolder takes we’ve seen on TV in recent memory. The Looming Tower proved to be a buzzy political drama for Hulu but may not have quite lived up to the hype. Twin Peaks is an incomprehensible masterpiece, and Godless came and went with a solid reception but not a significant cultural footprint. This category is anyone’s race.
The most star-studded category, as ever, is best actor in a limited series or TV movie. The contenders include Al Pacino (Paterno), Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks), Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) and Michael B. Jordan (Fahrenheit 451). The early money for the win in September is on a much lesser-known face, Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace). Versace is one of the few serious contenders this year that can claim to be entirely new, although it is part of FX’s American Crime Story brand from the mind of Emmys mainstay Ryan Murphy. The follow-up to the acclaimed The People v. O. J. Simpson (2016) is expected to dominate the acting races among the limited series and TV movies – with Penelope Cruz, Judith Light and Edgar Ramirez also hoping for nominations.
The nominations for the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards are in just a few days and I have my FINAL predictions in Drama Series, Comedy Series, Limited Series, TV Movie, all acting, writing and directing and Variety and Reality categories.
I’ll be live-tweeting the Emmy nominations on July 12th starting at 8:30am PST so tune in!
Here are my final Emmy nomination predictions for the 70th Primetime Emmy Awards.
Outstanding Limited Series
1. American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX) 2. The Looming Tower (Hulu) 3. Godless (Netflix) 4. Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime) 5. Howards End (Starz)
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
1. Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime) 2. Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) 3. Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower (Hulu) 4. Al Pacino, Paterno (HBO) 5. Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose (Showtime) 6. Evan Peters, American Horror Story: Cult (FX)
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
1. Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) 2. Bill Pullman, The Sinner (USA) 3. Jeff Daniels, Godless (Netflix) 4. Peter Sarsgaard, The Looming Tower (Hulu) 5. Tahar Rahim, The Looming Tower (Hulu) 6. Bill Camp, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
OTHER CONTENDERS Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar Live (NBC) Cody Fern, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) Michael Shannon, Fahrenheit 451 (HBO) Jimmi Simpson, USS Callister: Black Mirror (Netflix) Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower (Hulu) Sam Waterston, Godless (Netflix)
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
1. Laura Dern, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime) 2. Nicole Kidman, Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance) 3. Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) 4. Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX) 5. Angela Lansbury, Little Women (BBC America) 6. Elizabeth Debicki, The Tale (HBO)
Thursday morning brings the official 2018 Emmy nominations announced by Samira Wiley and Ryan Eggold. Before the big reveal, the staff at Awards Daily TV gave their final predictions in the major categories. Today, we’re focusing on TV Movie / Limited Series Emmy predictions.
Unlike last year’s Big Little Lies, Feud: Bette and Joan, and Fargo-dominated race, this year’s Limited Series / TV movie races are wide open. That’s something Jalal already talked about in his last Awards Tracker piece. And you’ll see that reflected in our overall predictions. There’s nothing we all agree on. Even worse, our Supporting Actor in a Limited Series / TV Movie predictions encompass 14 actors, showing how incredibly wide-open that race is.
Still, there are some certainties. In a relatively weak year, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story will dominate these categories. We all agreed that the series itself, Darren Criss, Penelope Cruz, Judith Light, and Edgar Ramirez would receive nominations. That should allow Versace to lead the Limited Series categories.
Most of us also consider Twin Peaks something of a good bet, even though there’s no guarantee that any awards-voting body will fall deeply for David Lynch works. Still, Kyle MacLachlan and Laura Dern feel like sure things, if such things exist in the world of Lynch. There are a few other certain nominations – Paterno and Pacino, Dern and The Tale – but filling those fifth and sixth slots will provide some really interesting nominations on Thursday morning.
Take a look at Team ADTV’s final Limited Series / TV Movie Emmy predictions below. Who do you think will receive nominations? Who will be left out? Be sure to leave your comments on the post!
On this FINAL Emmy nominations prediction podcast, I am joined by Awardsdaily TV’s Joey Moser. The shade will be deep and the tea is steeped. | 9 July 2018
The Water Cooler Gang gathers around the water cooler to dish their official 2018 Emmy predictions for Thursday’s nominations announcement. Plus, HBO’s Sharp Objects. | 9 July 2018
Nominees: Assassination of Gianni Versace, Twin Peaks, Godless, The Looming Tower, Top of the Lake: China Girl, American Vandal, Howards End Favorite:Assassination of Gianni Versace Netflix angle:Godless should be a safe bet to get a nomination but American Vandal could surprise and get a nomination to give Netflix a pair of contenders.
Is David Lynch just too damn weird for Emmy voters?
That’s a question that could be answered by Emmy nominations in the limited series and television movie categories, where Lynch’s return to “Twin Peaks” on Showtime is both a monumental achievement and one of the strangest things ever put on television.
Among the top contenders in the limited series category, the 18-episode “Twin Peaks” is longest piece of work by more than six hours — and it’s also so bizarre that it makes the last season of “Westworld” look like a model of concise storytelling. There’s a real question as to whether Lynch’s flights of fancy will be embraced or scorned by voters.
Among the other contenders, FX’s Ryan Murphy is always a major presence in these categories, with his big entry this year not the post-election edition of “American Horror Story” but the second installment of the true-crime dramatization series that began with his Emmy juggernaut “The People v. O.J. Simpson”: “”The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story.” It should be the most-nominated show in the field, though the limited series “The Looming Tower,” “Godless,” “Patrick Melrose,” “Genius: Picasso,” “Howards End” and “The Sinner” will all find support.
On the TV movie side, the Netflix anthology series “Black Mirror” has been able to enter individual episodes as standalone movies, and its “Star Trek” spoof “USS Callister” will be up against the likes of Laura Dern’s Sundance drama “The Tale” and HBO’s “Paterno” and “Fahrenheit 451.”
Outstanding Limited Series “Gianni Versace” is a sure thing, while Hulu’s pre-9/11 drama “The Looming Tower” and the Western “Godless” came on strong as voting approached. With only five nominees in the category, that means the battle for the last two slots will include “Twin Peaks,” “Howards End,” “Top of the Lake: China Girl,” “American Vandal,” “Patrick Melrose,” “Alias Grace,” “Genius: Picasso,” “The Alienist,” “The Sinner” and Steven Soderbergh’s “Mosaic.”
NatGeo has been relentless in its campaign for “Genius: Picasso,” the followup to last year’s nominated “Genius: Einstein,” but the show’s heat may have faded in Season 2. That show, along with USA’s “The Sinner” and Showtime’s “Patrick Melrose,” may find its reward in the acting categories, while voters show how schizophrenic they can be by giving noms to Starz’s stately period piece “Howards End” and the wild Lynchian nightmare “Twin Peaks.”
Predicted nominees (in order of likelihood): “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story,” “The Looming Tower,” “Godless,” “Howards End,” “Twin Peaks” Watch out for: “Genius: Picasso,” “Patrick Melrose,” “Top of the Lake: China Girl,” “The Sinner,” “The Alienist”
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie The year’s powerhouse male performances could easily fill this category a couple of times over. After all, you can’t leave out Darren Criss as the killer in “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” or Al Pacino as Joe Paterno, or Benedict Cumberbatch in “Patrick Melrose,” or Kyle MacLachlan as multiple versions of Agent Cooper in “Twin Peaks,” or Antonio Banderas as Picasso, or Jeff Daniels in “The Looming Tower,” or Michael B. Jordan as the tortured fireman in “Fahrenheit 451,” or Jesse Plemons as a Captain Kirk run amok in “USS Callister.”
And that doesn’t even count “Jesus Christ Superstar” lead John Legend, who stands a pretty good chance of becoming the first person to land an Emmy acting nomination for a performance in a live musical.
In fact you will have to leave out some of those guys, because there’s not room for all of them unless the category supersizes itself courtesy of a wrinkle in the Emmys rule book. And even if it goes up from six to seven nominees, voters will be hard-pressed to give a spot to deserving actors like Jared Harris (“The Terror”), Jack O’Connell (“Godless”) and Jimmy Tatro (“American Vandals”).
Criss, Cumberbatch and Pacino seem to be the locks, and we suspect that Banderas’ performance in “Genius: Picasso” will join them, as will Daniels in “The Looming Tower” and, in a close vote over Legend, MacLachlan in “Twin Peaks.”
Predicted nominees: Darren Criss, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “Patrick Melrose”; Al Pacino, “Paterno”; Jeff Daniels, “The Looming Tower”; Antonio Banderas, “Genius: Picasso”; Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks” Watch out for: John Legend, “Jesus Christ Superstar”; Michael B. Jordan, “Fahrenheit 451”; Jesse Plemons, “USS Callister”; Jared Harris, “The Terror”; Jack O’Connell, “Godless”
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie There will probably be six nominees in the category, but how many shows will they represent? “The Assassination of Gianni Versace,” after all, has formidable contenders in both Edgar Ramirez and Ricky Martin, while “The Looming Tower” supplies worthy candidates in Peter Sarsgaard, Michael Stuhlbarg, Bill Camp and Tahar Rahim.
Ramirez is a lock as Versace, and we’re guessing that Sarsgaard (as a CIA chief who doesn’t want to share pre-9/11 intelligence with the FBI) and Rahim (as a Muslim-American FBI agent) will make the cut from “The Looming Tower.”
Jeff Daniels is inescapable as the villain in “Godless” — and he’s one of several bad guys in the running, also including Michael Shannon in “Fahrenheit 451,” Jason Ritter in “The Tale” and Brandon Victor Dixon as the ultimate tortured bad guy, Judas Iscariot, in “Jesus Christ Superstar.” If John Legend doesn’t become the first performer to be nominated in a live musical for that program, Dixon probably will.
Predicted nominees: Edgar Ramirez, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”; Jeff Daniels, “Godless”; Michael Shannon, “Fahrenheit 451”; Peter Sarsgaard, “The Looming Tower”; Brandon Victor Dixon, “Jesus Christ Superstar”; Tahar Rahim, “The Looming Tower” Watch out for: Michael Stuhlbarg, “The Looming Tower”; Ricky Martin, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace”; Bill Camp, “The Looming Tower”; Jason Ritter, “The Tale”; Alex Rich, “Genius: Picasso”
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” should place two actresses in this category, Penélope Cruz for her role as Donatella Versace and Judith Light as the wife of another murder victim (if voters don’t think her role is too small). Merritt Wever is all but assured a nomination for “Godless,” while Nicole Kidman brings star power to “Top of the Lake: China Girl” and Jennifer Jason Leigh is in the running for “Patrick Melrose.” Laura Dern figures to be a strong contender for “Twin Peaks,” though her chances (and those of co-star Naomi Watts) could suffer if voters are baffled by the show.
Angela Lansbury is the most-nominated actress who has never won an Emmy, and voters will likely give her another chance this year with “Little Women.” Wild cards include Sharon Stone as a celebrated writer in Steven Soderbergh’s miniseries and app “Mosaic” and Billie Lourd and Alison Pill in “American Horror Story: Cult.”
Predicted nominees: Penelope Cruz, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”; Merritt Wever, “Godless”; Nicole Kidman, “Top of the Lake: China Girl,” Angela Lansbury, “Little Women”; Judith Light, “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story”; Jennifer Jason Leigh, “Patrick Melrose” Watch out for: Laura Dern, “Twin Peaks”; Ellen Burstyn, “The Tale”; Sharon Stone, “Mosaic”; Anna Paquin, “Alias Grace”; Naomi Watts, “Twin Peaks”
The Assassination of Gianni Versace Godless Howards End The Looming Tower Twin Peaks
A once-moribund Emmy category, the miniseries has been renewed under its new title—and by changing appetites in television consumption. This year, FX’s thorough, devastating portrait of late fashion designer Gianni Versace and his killer is likely to get a nod for its sprawl, ambition, and dazzling ensemble of actors. Hulu’s The Looming Tower, about nothing more sacrosanct than 9/11—well, the bungled events leading up to it, anyway—will probably get on the shortlist for the same reasons. We’d like to assume that David Lynch’s lauded, befuddling return to television is a lock, but who knows how many Emmy voters will groove on Twink Peaks’ grim, erratic wavelength. People love a good Western, which is why we’ve put Netflix’s solid Godless on here. And few awards voters can resist the pull of a well-reviewed literary adaptation period piece; hence, Starz’s Howards End. Potential spoilers could be Top of the Lake: China Girl and, we hope against hope, the brilliant American Vandal.
LEAD ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower Michael B. Jordan, Fahrenheit 451 Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks Al Pacino, Paterno
Darren Criss was the centerpiece of his series, as was Kyle MacLachlan, so they are likely to be recognized here. Benedict Cumberbatch is no stranger to Emmy nominations, and he’s been heaped with praise for his addled turn on Melrose—but are enough voters aware of it? Jeff Daniels and Al Pacino are big names in big projects, so we’re putting them down here, while Michael B. Jordan, riding high on Black Panther esteem, could edge his way in despite Fahrenheit’s tepid reviews. Antonio Banderas as an intense artist in Genius: Picasso could upset in that sixth slot, though.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Penélope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Laura Dern, Twin Peaks Judith Light, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Sharon Stone, Mosaic Merritt Wever, Godless
Emmy voters likely won’t forego a chance to nominate Penélope Cruz, so we’re assuming she’ll be here. And her co-star Judith Light is beloved—let’s put her in, too. We’re predicting big things for Godless overall, which means Merritt Wever will likely get recognized for her idiosyncratic work as a gay frontierswoman. Laura Dern might even have a double-nomination year if enough voters appreciated her on Twin Peaks. Though many prognosticators are putting Angela Lansbury in that last spot, for a Little Women adaptation that didn’t get much traction, we’re gonna try to put some proactive energy out into the universe and predict Sharon Stone for her terrific work in Steven Soderbergh’s criminally under-appreciated mystery series. Following your heart instead of your head is a foolish game to play during awards season, but sometimes, you just have to do it.
SUPPORTING ACTOR, LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Jeff Daniels, Godless Bill Camp, The Looming Tower Edgar Ramírez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Michael Shannon, Fahrenheit 451 Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower
All of these guys, minus maybe Jeff Daniels, have other contenders closely nipping at their heels. Brandon Victor Dixon could find his way into the mix for his Judas in the live Jesus Christ Superstar, as could any of the other approx. 8 billion men in The Looming Tower. But we think the biggest surprise nomination could be Ricky Martin for The Assassination of Gianni Versace. His part was small, but c’mon: it’s Ricky Martin.
According to our racetrack odds, Edgar Ramirez is the Emmy front-runner for Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor for playing the title character in “The Assassination of Gianni Versace.” The FX true-crime drama is the favorite to win Best Limited Series, so it stands to reason that voters would also recognize Versace himself. But there’s another reason the TV academy might want to check off his name: to make up for his loss for “Carlos” seven years ago.
The Venezuelan actor made appearances in “The Bourne Ultimatum” (2007) and “Che” (2008) before his international breakthrough role as the title character in “Carlos,” a real-life political terrorist in the 1970s who was finally arrested in 1994 and is currently serving a life sentence in prison. Directed by French auteur Olivier Assayas, the series received widespread acclaim, including kudos from the film world. Ramirez won the Cesar Award for Best Actor and was a finalist at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and National Society of Film Critics Awards.
“Carlos” won the Golden Globe for Best Movie/Miniseries in 2011, but when the Emmy nominations came around a few months later it was snubbed from that top category. The only nominations it received were for Ramirez’s lead performance and for Assayas’s direction.
Despite that shortfall Ramirez was considered a strong contender for Best Movie/Mini Actor, but that race took almost everyone by surprise when Barry Pepper came out of nowhere to win for playing Robert F. Kennedy in “The Kennedys.” He even beat his co-star Greg Kinnear, who had the more iconic role as John F. Kennedy.
Now Ramirez could cash in his Emmy IOU for playing another title character. “Assassination” tells the story of Andrew Cunanan (played by Movie/Mini Actor front-runner Darren Criss), who ended his cross-country killing spree by murdering famous fashion designer Versace in Miami in 1997. Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users Ramirez is out front with 10/3 odds.
But it’s a much closer race when you ask our Experts. We’ve polled 18 Expert journalists from top media outlets for their picks, and only seven of them are predicting Ramirez will win: Debbie Day (Rotten Tomatoes), Pete Hammond(Deadline Hollywood), Chris Harnick (E!), Matthew Jacobs (Huffington Post), Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly) and Robert Rorke (New York Post).
Compare that to Jeff Daniels, who is backed by eight Experts for his villainous role in the Netflix western “Godless“: Eric Deggans (NPR), Lynn Elber(Associated Press), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Ben Travers (IndieWire), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Ken Tucker (Yahoo).
That would be ironic. In 2011 Ramirez played a killer and lost to a man who played the victim of an assassination. This time around he plays the victim, and he could lose to a killer. Do you think Ramirez will pull it out, or will he have to wait to cash in his Emmy IOU another day?
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