It’s dangerous to underestimate Benedict Cumberbatch at the Emmys. Most pundits weren’t predicting that he’d win Best Movie/Mini Actor for “Sherlock: His Last Vow” in 2014. In fact, he ranked fourth with 50/1 odds. Now he’s nominated in that category for the sixth time in seven years, this time for “Patrick Melrose.” And again he’s not the front-runner to win. But our Emmy Experts warn us not to foolishly discount him again in what could be his second time upsetting a Ryan Murphy favorite.
The 2014 race was up in the air. Mark Ruffalo had the narrow lead in our predictions for his role in Murphy’s HBO adaptation of “The Normal Heart,” and even in hindsight that seemed like a smart bet. It was a showy performance full of righteous speeches adapted from a Tony winning play about the early days of the AIDS crisis.
Then there were Billy Bob Thornton and Martin Freeman, both nominated for “Fargo.” It was the front-runner for Best Miniseries, which it ultimately won, and Thornton especially seemed like a formidable opponent since he was an Oscar winning movie star playing a mustache-twirling villain. Most of our Experts and Top Users that year thought Thornton would take it.
But instead, Cumberbatch won in a huge upset. Not only that, “His Last Vow” ended up with seven total Emmys that year including Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actor, where Freeman upset another “Normal Heart” actor, Matt Bomer. It was the most awarded program of the year in any genre. We didn’t see that coming.
Now the ‘Batch is back, and so is Ryan Murphy — no surprise there since both have been regular fixtures at the Emmys in recent years. Cumberbatch earned his sixth bid for playing the tortured title character in “Patrick Melrose,” and his bid tied him with Laurence Olivier for the second most nominations in the category (both are one bid behind Hal Holbrook). And Murphy could be poised to sweep the longform categories with his true-crime limited series “The Assassination of Gianni Versace.”
Among the wins we’re predicting for “Versace” is Best Movie/Mini Actor for Darren Criss, who plays spree killer Andrew Cunanan. But it’s not an open-and-shut case. Criss gets leading odds of 2/3, but Cumberbatch is right on his heels with odds of 7/2. And he’s backed by five of the Expert journalists we’ve polled for their Emmy picks so far: Debra Birnbaum (Variety), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire) and Ben Travers(IndieWire). That’s only two fewer Experts than are predicting Criss.
“Patrick Melrose” did well overall at the Emmys, also earning bids for Best Limited Series, Best Movie/Mini Writing, Best Movie/Mini Directing and Best Movie/Mini Casting. That shows significant support from the TV academy, though it’s the acting branch that matters for Cumberbatch and unfortunately he’s the only actor from the program to earn a nom. Compare that to “Versace,” which earned six nominations for acting, so it appears to me much more beloved by the peer group voters who will be deciding Cumberbatch’s fate.
Then again, “The Normal Heart” had five acting nominations and “Fargo” had four in 2014. “Sherlock” only had two that year, but it still managed to win them both. Sometimes it’s not a matter of how many actors the voters love but how much they love them. And judging from recent history, they love Cumberbatch. A lot.
Tag: darren criss
Emmys Finally See a Repeat Reset With Leading Men Nominees (Column)
What may be most interesting, though, is the limited series/movie actor race. The lone vet is “Genius: Picasso’s” Antonio Banderas, with one prior nom. The category not only boasts some first-time nominees in the category — hi, Darren Criss, Jeff Daniels and Jesse Plemons! — but also an overall rookie acting nominee in John Legend (“Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert”). What a story it would make if a truly brand-new actor broke through. Nothing else would put performers on notice that they can’t get too comfortable.
Strides have clearly been taken to ensure the Emmys stay relevant and topical, but the real test will come in September, when we will see who takes home the trophies. For the past three years, the limited series/movie actor winner was a first-time nominee (Richard Jenkins in 2015, Courtney B. Vance in 2016 and Riz Ahmed in 2017), while the same was true in drama actor for the past two years (Rami Malek in 2016 and Brown reigning last year), and in comedy in 2017 newcomer Glover dethroned two-time champ Tambor.
Here’s hoping that continues, to become an official streak, and so no one, even those performers churning out consistent performances year over year, rest on their laurels. Because in the end, everyone wins when TV and its talent are at the top of their game.
Emmys Finally See a Repeat Reset With Leading Men Nominees (Column)
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Screen Talk Emmy Edition 2018: Black Mirror, Versace Lead Longform Races (Episode 9)
IndieWire’s Screen Talk podcast brings back its bonus Emmy edition as this year’s race heats up. This week, IndieWire editor-at-large Anne Thompson and executive editor Michael Schneider look at the key limited series and TV movie categories. | 1 August 2018
Which of Ryan Murphy’s Emmy-nominated actors is most likely to win? [POLL]
Since 2012, no one has dominated the limited series/TV movie acting categories at the Emmys like Ryan Murphy — not Murphy himself, but his actors. Thanks to his various anthology series “American Horror Story,” “American Crime Story,” Feud: Bette and Joan” and the HBO film “The Normal Heart,” Murphy has netted 47 nominations for his stars, producing seven victories. This year he has eight actors nominated — his highest tally since 2014, when he got nominations for 11 stars — but who is the most likely of them to win?
Murphy’s actors’ nominations are spread between two shows: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” and “American Horror Story: Cult,” with the former getting four and the latter scoring two. “Versace” leading man Darren Criss has been sitting atop our predictions since the nomination phase for his chilling turn as serial killer Andrew Cunanan and currently holds an 8/15-odd edge over his next closest rival, “Patrick Melrose” star Benedict Cumberbatch, who won in 2014 for “Sherlock: His Last Vow.” At 31, Criss would have to overcome age bias to become the second youngest winner in the category.
After getting boxed out last year thanks to the “Big Little Lies” and “Feud” ladies, Sarah Paulson is back in the lead actress race for “American Horror Story: Cult.” This is her fifth nomination for an “AHS” season, but the 2016 champ, for “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story,” will likely have to wait for her first “AHS” win: She’s in fifth place in our predictions, which have Laura Dern (“The Tale”) at No. 1.
Murphy reaped three slots in supporting actor, just one shy of the four he nabbed in 2014 for his stars from “The Normal Heart” and the same amount “O.J.” got in 2016. Sterling K. Brown defeated his “O.J.” co-stars David Schwimmer and John Travolta that year, but our odds are forecasting triple losses for “Versace” players Ricky Martin, Edgar Ramirez and Finn Wittrock to Jeff Daniels(“Godless”), who is also nominated in lead for “The Looming Tower.” Of the three, Ramirez has the advantage of playing the title character, even if the show was ultimately not about the slain fashion designer, and the most screen time. But unlike Brown, who was an undeniable breakout on “O.J.,” the praise for Ramirez — and “Versace” in general — is comparably muted.
Supporting actress is the only category in which both of Murphy’s shows collide; “Versace” stars Penelope Cruz and Judith Light, and “AHS” star Adina Porter are up. Porter, who’s in seventh place in our odds, feels like one of those “happy to be here” bids, while our pundits are split between Cruz and Light. Cruz, who nailed Donatella Versace’s accent, has the benefit of being an Oscar-winning movie star, but Light has the more acclaimed performance, breaking our hearts as the Marilyn Miglin, the widow of one of Cunanan’s victims, Lee Miglin. She’s also more “due” when it comes to the Emmys, having lost her previous three nominations; Cruz is on her first nomination.
Which of Ryan Murphy’s Emmy-nominated actors is most likely to win? [POLL]
Emmy billboard and bench ads at Pico Boulevard and Westwood Boulevard (source) | 28 July 2018
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Best Limited Series: Who Will and Should Win
This week’s episode dives deep into the Limited Series category, from Lead Actor and Actress to the best series or movie. Is Darren Criss guaranteed to win for his role as Andrew Cunanan in American Crime Story? Will Judith Light get the credit she deserves? Henry, Lynette, and Kristen break down who deserves the big win and who will most likely take home the trophy. | 30 July 2018
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