Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmys Predictions Ahead of Voting

Best Limited Series

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Godless (Netflix)
Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Genius: Picasso (National Geographic)
The Alienist (TNT)

Best Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Darren Criss (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Legend (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Antonio Banderas (Genius: Picasso)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Patrick Melrose) — podcast
Jeff Daniels (The Looming Tower) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Black Mirror: USS Callister) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Jeff Daniels (Godless) — podcast
Edgar Ramirez (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Brandon Victor Dixon (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Ricky Martin (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Finn Wittrock (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
John Leguizamo (Waco)
Michael Stuhlbarg (The Looming Tower)

Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Television Movie

PROJECTED NOMINEES

Merritt Wever (Godless)
Penelope Cruz (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Judith Light (The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story)
Sara Bareilles (Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert)
Letitia Wright (Black Mirror: Black Museum)
Adina Porter (American Horror Story: Cult)

Best Directing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — “The Man Who Would Be Vogue” (Ryan Murphy) — podcast
Godless (Scott Frank)
The Looming Tower — “9/11” (Craig Zisk)
Jesus Christ Superstar Live in Concert (David Leveaux and Alex Rudzinski)
Twin Peaks (David Lynch)
Paterno (Barry Levinson)
Patrick Melrose (Edward Berger)

Best Writing for a Limited Series, Movie or Dramatic Special

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH

Godless (Scott Frank)
Black Mirror: USS Callister (Charlie Brooker and William Bridges)
Twin Peaks (Mark Frost and David Lynch)
Patrick Melrose (David Nicholls)
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story — “House by the Lake” (Tom Rob Smith)
American Vandal — “Clean Up” (Matthew McManus and Kevin McManus)

Feinberg Forecast: Updated Emmys Predictions Ahead of Voting

Betting on the 2018 Emmy Awards – Latest Odds and My Top Picks

Best Actor – Limited Series/Movie

There were some pretty powerful limited series and movies released over the past year, and Darren Criss leads the way for best actor for his gripping performance in The Assassination of Gianni Versace.

Darren Criss -200
Benedict Cumberbatch +180
Antonio Banderas +1200
John Legend +1200
Jesse Plemons +3500
Jeff Daniels +4000

I’m not sure if Criss is the favorite because of how well he acted or just how intense his series was. Either way, it does feel like some pretty iconic stars are being overlooked here.

Jeff Daniels comes in with the worst odds despite crushing it in The Looming Tower, while Antonio Banderas was surprisingly fantastic (I always felt he was loudly overrated) in Genius.

If anyone is stopping Criss, though, it has to be Benedict Cumberbatch for his work in Patrick Melrose.

I think you can consider other options here, but Riz Ahmed was an explosive newcomer last year in The Night Of, and I think Criss looks like a lock to follow a similar path.

PICK Darren Criss -200

Best Limited Series

This category enters with a landslide favorite, as The Assassination of Gianni Versace was extremely well done from top to bottom and figures to be this year’s The Night Of.

The Assassination of Gianni Versace -1500
Godless +1000
Patrick Melrose +1200
Genius: Picasso +1800
The Alienist +2000

Godless has the next best shot here, but this is hands-down The Assassination of Gianni Versace’s Emmy to lose.

PICK The Assassination of Gianni Versace -1500

Best Supporting Actor – Limited Series/Movie

Jeff Daniels has developed into such a great actor that his footprint is felt all over the 2018 Emmy Awards.

He’s nominated for his part in The Looming Tower, but he enters this category as the clear favorite.

Jeff Daniels -650
Edgar Ramirez +400
Brandon Victor Dixon +2000
Finn Wittrock +3300
Michael Stuhlbarg +3300
Ricky Martin +3300
John Leguizamo +4000

I don’t think anyone here really has a case to unseat Daniels from the top spot. Ramirez has the next best odds, but the argument for these other candidates comes up pretty frail.

If anything, I’d swing for the fences and roll the dice on John Leguizamo at +4000. He was never properly honored for his impressive work on Bloodline, while he was fantastic in Waco.

A longshot flier bet isn’t a terrible try here, but Daniels looks like a lock.

PICK Jeff Daniels -650

Best Supporting Actress – Limited Series/Movie

If you thought we were done with The Assassination of Gianni Versace, think again.

Obviously, the critics loved this limited series, and it had as much to do with the tense acting as it did with the real harrowing story.

Penelope Cruz hands in yet another strong performance from this limited series, and she’s favored to take home the award for best supporting actress.

Penelope Cruz -150
Judith Light +250
Merritt Wever +350
Sara Bareilles +1200
Letitia Wright +3300
Adina Porter +5000

I probably wouldn’t go against Cruz here, especially since -150 is a nice price for a sizable favorite.

That being said, Judith Light was also great in The Assassination of Gianni Versace, and Letitia Wright (+3300) is worth a flier for her role in a Black Mirror episode.

I still think this is Cruz’s award to lose, and the value is nice.

PICK Penelope Cruz -150

Betting on the 2018 Emmy Awards – Latest Odds and My Top Picks

Penelope Cruz Calls ‘American Crime Story’ Role Her ‘Personal Homage to Donatella and Gianni’

Before Penelope Cruz signed on for Season 2 of Ryan Murphy’s American Crime Story, there was one person she had to call.

“I called [Donatella Versace], and I said, ‘I need to know how you feel about me doing this.’ I knew Ryan wanted to portray her in a very respectful way. She told me that she was not involved with the show, but if somebody was going to play her, she was happy it was me.”

Cruz needed that blessing in order to take on the project. “That was what made me decide to do it. I could not say yes before that phone call, because I didn’t think that would be respectful.” During that conversation, Cruz and Versace discussed the day she received the news about her brother and the pressure to continue working.

“What an amazing love story, this brother and sister. They loved each other so much, and I’m so sad she lost him that way.”

Finding Donatella’s Voice (and Her Own)

Once Cruz said yes to the role, then the intimidation set in. For one thing, the first season of American Crime Story (The People v. OJ Simpson) was a huge success. Second, she was playing somebody that she knows and likes.

“We all know how she talks, how she moves. At the same time, I didn’t want to do an imitation, and Ryan didn’t want that from any of us. He didn’t want an imitation or caricature of any kind. I tried to capture an essence without trying to do an imitation. And it was such a pleasure to play her because she’s a very inspiring woman, very strong. Imagine the challenges she’s had in her life, everything she had to do in the moment that she lost somebody that she loved so much. So I did my own personal homage to Donatella and Gianni because I feel a lot of affection for them, even if I never met Gianni, but I always admired him so much and same with her. All of these things made me feel a healthy kind of pressure, to be able to do our own tribute to them.”

When it came to developing character, of top priority, of course, was finding Donatella’s unforgettable voice.

“That was the most difficult thing and the most scary thing for me and the thing that took longer than a month of work. I prepared for many, many months with Tim Monich (voice coach), and we worked really hard on it. I love when I have an interesting character, that time of preparing and research, and I love Tim Monich as a coach. I think he’s really one of the best in the world.”

In order to get that voice down, Cruz spent hours watching videos of Donatella.

“If I was on set, all the time in between shooting, maybe some days I was watching three or four hours of Donatella backstage and interviews. In those four or five months of preparation, I would watch material of her every day and that was really helpful.”

On Fashion and Ryan Murphy

No stranger to the red carpet herself, Cruz found new appreciation for all of the behind-the-scenes moving parts in fashion, what goes into putting together a couture collection.

“It takes a lot of talent, because they are very talented, and they are true artists, but at the same time, they have to have a business mind and have to be incredibly hard workers. It’s a combination of a lot of things that create that success, and it’s a big team of people. I love, for example, to see that a lot of the people who are with Donatella have been with her for years, and they all love working with her. I think that says a lot about a person.”

Donatella to fashion is a bit like Ryan Murphy to television, with frequent collaborators and cutting-edge style.

“What Ryan has done, with flashbacks, telling the story out of order in time, it’s a very modern and interesting structure that keeps you on your toes for the whole series. He’s an amazing storyteller.”

“I Need to Feel Insecure When I Begin a Movie”

On the series, Donatella faces scrutiny for her own creations, demonstrating unexpected vulnerability from one of fashion’s powerhouses. Cruz sees a bit of that vulnerability in herself, with each role she takes.

“I was lucky to be starting work so young, to be traveling and learning, and the thing I love the most about our job as actors is that we are students. Some movies can be more successful than others, but everything can teach you something. It can be an experience for you. I need to feel insecure when I begin a movie, and every day when I’m on a set, that insecurity, if I didn’t have that, I think I’d have to do something else.”

Penelope Cruz Calls ‘American Crime Story’ Role Her ‘Personal Homage to Donatella and Gianni’

https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/479721678/stream?client_id=N2eHz8D7GtXSl6fTtcGHdSJiS74xqOUI?plead=please-dont-download-this-or-our-lawyers-wont-let-us-host-audio

Screen Talk Emmy Edition 2018: Black Mirror, Versace Lead Longform Races (Episode 9)

IndieWire’s Screen Talk podcast brings back its bonus Emmy edition as this year’s race heats up. This week, IndieWire editor-at-large Anne Thompson and executive editor Michael Schneider look at the key limited series and TV movie categories. | 1 August 2018

Which of Ryan Murphy’s Emmy-nominated actors is most likely to win? [POLL]

Since 2012, no one has dominated the limited series/TV movie acting categories at the Emmys like Ryan Murphy — not Murphy himself, but his actors. Thanks to his various anthology series “American Horror Story,” “American Crime Story,” Feud: Bette and Joan” and the HBO film “The Normal Heart,” Murphy has netted 47 nominations for his stars, producing seven victories. This year he has eight actors nominated — his highest tally since 2014, when he got nominations for 11 stars — but who is the most likely of them to win?

Murphy’s actors’ nominations are spread between two shows: “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” and “American Horror Story: Cult,” with the former getting four and the latter scoring two. “Versace” leading man Darren Criss has been sitting atop our predictions since the nomination phase for his chilling turn as serial killer Andrew Cunanan and currently holds an 8/15-odd edge over his next closest rival, “Patrick Melrose” star Benedict Cumberbatch, who won in 2014 for “Sherlock: His Last Vow.” At 31, Criss would have to overcome age bias to become the second youngest winner in the category.

After getting boxed out last year thanks to the “Big Little Lies” and “Feud” ladies, Sarah Paulson is back in the lead actress race for “American Horror Story: Cult.” This is her fifth nomination for an “AHS” season, but the 2016 champ, for “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story,” will likely have to wait for her first “AHS” win: She’s in fifth place in our predictions, which have Laura Dern (“The Tale”) at No. 1.

Murphy reaped three slots in supporting actor, just one shy of the four he nabbed in 2014 for his stars from “The Normal Heart” and the same amount “O.J.” got in 2016. Sterling K. Brown defeated his “O.J.” co-stars David Schwimmer and John Travolta that year, but our odds are forecasting triple losses for “Versace” players Ricky Martin, Edgar Ramirez and Finn Wittrock to Jeff Daniels(“Godless”), who is also nominated in lead for “The Looming Tower.” Of the three, Ramirez has the advantage of playing the title character, even if the show was ultimately not about the slain fashion designer, and the most screen time. But unlike Brown, who was an undeniable breakout on “O.J.,” the praise for Ramirez — and “Versace” in general — is comparably muted.

Supporting actress is the only category in which both of Murphy’s shows collide; “Versace” stars Penelope Cruz and Judith Light, and “AHS” star Adina Porter are up. Porter, who’s in seventh place in our odds, feels like one of those “happy to be here” bids, while our pundits are split between Cruz and Light. Cruz, who nailed Donatella Versace’s accent, has the benefit of being an Oscar-winning movie star, but Light has the more acclaimed performance, breaking our hearts as the Marilyn Miglin, the widow of one of Cunanan’s victims, Lee Miglin. She’s also more “due” when it comes to the Emmys, having lost her previous three nominations; Cruz is on her first nomination.

Which of Ryan Murphy’s Emmy-nominated actors is most likely to win? [POLL]