Limited Series

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (FX)
Godless (Netflix)
Howards End (Starz)
The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)

The first four slots more or less in hand, the wild card here, to my mind, is Godless—a star-studded Western that would seem to scratch the TV Academy’s every itch, yet premiered last fall to relatively little fanfare and hasn’t had a major “For Your Consideration” push from the streaming giant, that I can tell. I’m going to stick with it here, but onyl by a nose: It could easily be leapfrogged by Showtime’s Patrick Melrose, with Emmy golden boy Benedict Cumberbatch, or even Genius: Picasso, with Antonio Banderas as the famed artist.

Lead Actor (Limited Series/TV Movie)

Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)
Jeff Daniels, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Michael B. Jordan, Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
Kyle MacLachlan, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)
Al Pacino, Paterno (HBO)

Whew! This category has some big names! Which is how I arrived at a list that doesn’t include Antonio Banderas as Pablo Picasso in Genius (for which Geoffrey Rush nabbed a nomination last year). The only non-supernova on here is Criss, and his frightening, magnetic performance as spree killer Andrew Cunanan in The Assassination of Gianni Versace might be the cream of the crop. (MacLachlan’s multi-character turn in Twin Peaks is sure to give him a run for his money.) I suppose it’s theoretically possible for Daniels’ supporting campaign for Godless to knock him out and allow Banderas to slip in, but I’m not gonna bet the house on it.

Supporting Actor (Limited Series/TV Movie)

Jeff Daniels, Godless (Netflix)
Ricky Martin, The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace (FX)
Michael Shannon, Fahrenheit 451 (HBO)
Michael Stuhlbarg, The Looming Tower (Hulu)
Peter Sarsgaard, The Looming Tower (Hulu)

Along with Lead Actor (Drama), this is the list that reflects the biggest shift from my own preferences: Only Ramirez, as a very convincing Gianni Versace, appears on both. I suppose I can’t complain if Michael Shannon or Michael Stuhlbarg(the stalwart character actors of the decade, for my money) win an Emmy, but this category is the ultimate consequence of Emmy voters’ traditional inability to reach deep. Tahar Rahim (The Looming Tower), Alex Lawther (Howards End), Cody Fern and Finn Wittrock (The Assassination of Gianni Versace) are the lesser-known names that immediately come to mind as more deserving than most of the mailed-in performances listed above, but I’m just one lowly, increasingly-despondent-as-this-story-goes-on TV critic.

Outstanding Supporting Actress (Limited Series/TV Movie)

Penelope Cruz, The Assassination Of Gianni Versace (FX)
Laura Dern, Twin Peaks: The Return (Showtime)
Nicole Kidman, Top of the Lake: China Girl (Sundance TV)
Angela Lansbury, Little Women (PBS)
Judith Light, The Assassination Of Gianni Versace (FX)
Merritt Wever, Godless (Netflix)

If my predictions hold, I’ll be thoroughly sad not to see Anna Paquin’s terrifying performance in Alias Grace, or Tracey Ullmann’s devilishly funny one in Howards End, go unacknowledged. But the list above is basically the gay TV critic’s dream field, so: I know when to hold my tongue.

Emmys 2018: Predictions and Proclamations, Nominations Edition